ICES advice 2018

“Herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga (central Baltic Sea)”

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ICES advice on fishing opportunities

ICES advises that when the EU multiannual plan (MAP) is applied, catches in 2019 that correspond to the F ranges in the plan are between 115 591 tonnes and 192 787 tonnes. According to the MAP, catches higher than those corresponding to FMSY (155 333 tonnes) can only be taken under conditions specified in the MAP, whilst the entire range is considered precautionary when applying the ICES advice rule. This advice applies to all catches from the stock, including those taken in Subdivision 28.1.

Stock development over time

Spawning-stock biomass (SSB) decreased until 2001 and then increased, and it has been above MSY Btrigger since 2007. Fishing mortality (F) increased until 2000 and then decreased, remaining below FMSY between 2004 to 2014. F has been above FMSY since 2015. Recruitment in 2015 is estimated to be the highest of the whole time-series.

Figure 1 Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Summary of the stock assessment. (SSB in 2018 is predicted).

Summary of the assessment

Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes. Recruitment in thousands.

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Stock and explotation status


ICES assesses that fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and below Fpa and Flim; spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points

Catch scenarios


Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. Weights are in tonnes. Recruitment is in thousands.


Variable Value Notes
F ages 3–6 (2018) 0.35 Based on a TAC constraint*
SSB (2018) 808715.00
Rage1 (2018) 17383000.00 RCT3 estimate.
Rage1 (2019–2020) 14843754.00 Geometric mean 1988–2016.
Total catch (2018) 262935.00 TAC constraint*


Table 3 Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Annual catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.


Basis Total.catch..2018. Ftotal..2018. SSB..2018. SSB..2019. X..SSB.change.. X..Advicechange…
ICES advice basis
2 EU MAP^: FMSY 267745 0.220 1283487 1113149 -13% 24%
Other options
3 EU MAP: Flower 200236 0.160 1309914 1194895 -9% -7%
4 EU MAP: Fupper 331510 0.280 1257629 1037734 -17% 53%
6 ICES MSY approach: FMSY 267745 0.220 1283487 1113149 -13% 24%
7 F = 0 0 0.000 1383265 1448388 5% -100%
8 Fpa 457890 0.410 1203489 893608 -26% 112%
9 Flim 553453 0.520 1159630 789549 -32% 156%
10 SSB (2019) = Blim 924535 1.100 955800 429915 -55% 328%
11 SSB (2019) = Bpa 739660 0.770 1065542 599790 -44% 242%
12 SSB (2019) = MSY Btrigger 739660 0.770 1065195 599790 -44% 242%
13 F = F2017 239413 0.195 1294692 1147220 -11% 11%
14 F = MAP FMSY lower 200236 0.160 1309914 1194895 -9% -7%
15 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.01 211757 0.170 1305469 1180807 -10% -2%
16 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.02 223170 0.180 1301041 1166908 -10% 3%
17 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.03 234473 0.190 1296629 1153196 -11% 8%
18 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.04 245670 0.200 1292232 1139667 -12% 14%
19 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.05 256760 0.210 1287852 1126319 -13% 19%
20 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.06 267745 0.220 1283487 1113149 -13% 24%
21 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.07 278626 0.230 1279138 1100155 -14% 29%
22 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.08 289405 0.240 1274805 1087334 -15% 34%
23 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.09 300081 0.250 1270488 1074684 -15% 39%
24 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.10 310657 0.260 1266186 1062202 -16% 44%
25 F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.11 321133 0.270 1261900 1049886 -17% 49%
26 F = MAP FMSY upper 331510 0.280 1257629 1037734 -17% 53%
  • SSB 2020 relative to SSB 2019. ** Advice value in 2019 relative to Advice value for EU MAP: FMSY 2018 (267 745 tonnes). *** Advice value for 2019 relative to Advice value for EU MAP: Flower 2018 (200 236 tonnes). ^ Advice value for 2019 relative to Advice value for EU MAP: Fupper 2018 (331 510 tonnes). ^^ MAP multiannual plan (EU, 2016). ^^^ TAC = TAC in 2018: EU share 229 355 tonnes + Russian quota 29 500 tonnes + central Baltic herring stock caught in Gulf of Riga 4 340 tonnes (mean 2012–2016) − Gulf of Riga herring stock caught in central Baltic Sea 260 tonnes (mean 2012 – 2016) = 262 935 tonnes.
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Basis F Catch_2018 SSB_2019 SSB_2020
NA NA NA -2020
ICES advice basis NA NA NA NA
EU MAP^^: FMSY 0.22 155333 735005 716594
EU MAP^^: Flower 0.16 115591 750157 766194
EU MAP^^: Fupper 0.28 192787 720202 670935
Other scenarios NA NA NA NA
ICES MSY approach: FMSY 0.22 155333 735005 716594
20% decrease in TAC ^^^ 0.31 210703 712928 649472
F = 0 0.00 0 791368 916969
F = Fpa 0.41 263813 690577 587317
F = Flim 0.52 318710 666102 525436
SSB (2020) = Blim 0.73 408365 622595 429752
SSB (2020) = Bpa 0.39 254003 694799 598630
SSB (2020) = MSY Btrigger 0.39 254003 694799 598630
F = F2018 0.35 232886 703741 623242

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Basis of the advice


Table 4 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. The basis of the advice.
Advice basis MSY approach.
Management plan The current recovery plan (EU, 2004) is based on precautionary reference points that are no longer appropriate. ICES has not evaluated this plan.


Quality of the assessment


The uncertainty in the assessment is relatively high, with large changes in biomass estimates in consecutive years. The model confidence intervals are an underestimate of uncertainty because they are narrower than interannual changes in estimates in consecutive years. There is a lack of tuning data for the earlier years of the assessment, for some areas outside of subareas 7 and 8, and for the larger individuals in the population. Given the expansion of the stock into northern areas (ICES, 2017b), there is a potential that not all catches are reported for this stock. Biological sampling from these areas is also limited. The data compilation of this stock is very complicated because it is exploited by several countries and the assessment model configuration is complex. In turn, the assessment model is very sensitive to the data and the settings used. Hence, it is extremely important for the quality of the assessment to have the complete data for all the countries on time and in the right format.

Reference Points


Herring in Subarea 4 and divisions 3.a and 7.d, autumn spawners. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
Framework Reference.point Value Technical.basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 45000 Bpa ICES (2016a)
NA FMSY 0.28 Stochastic simulations on a segmented regression stock–recruitment relationship. ICES (2016a)
Precautionary approach Blim 32000 A low biomass which was followed by a quick recovery. ICES (2016b)
NA Bpa 45000 1.4 × Blim ICES (2016b)
NA Flim 0.87 Fishing mortality resulting in a 5% probability of SSB falling below Blim. ICES(2016b)
NA Fpa 0.62 Flim/1.4 ICES(2016b)
Management plan SSBMGT No defined


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Basis of the assessment


Herring in Subarea 4 and divisions 3.a and 7.d, autumn spawners. Basis of the assessment and advice
ICES.stock.data.category X1..ICES..2016c..
Assessment type Length-based model (SS3; ICES, 2017a) that uses landings and some discards in the model. Additional discards are then included to calculate a catch forecast.
Input data Commercial landings; four survey indices (EVHOE-WIBTS-Q4, SpPGFS-WIBTS-Q3, IGFS-WIBTS-Q4, and RESSGASC); maturity data: constant maturity (Martin, 1991); natural mortality: constant value (0.4).
Discards and bycatch Data series from most fleets are available; 75% of the observed discards are included in the assessment (ICES, 2017a). The discards not used in the assessment are used to top-up the catch advice.
Indicators None.
Other information Last benchmarked in 2014 WKSOUTH (ICES, 2014).
Working group Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Waters Ecoregion (WGBIE)

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