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ICES advises that when the EU multiannual plan (MAP) is applied, catches in 2019 that correspond to the F ranges in the plan are between 115 591 tonnes and 192 787 tonnes. According to the MAP, catches higher than those corresponding to FMSY (155 333 tonnes) can only be taken under conditions specified in the MAP, whilst the entire range is considered precautionary when applying the ICES advice rule. This advice applies to all catches from the stock, including those taken in Subdivision 28.1.
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB) decreased until 2001 and then increased, and it has been above MSY Btrigger since 2007. Fishing mortality (F) increased until 2000 and then decreased, remaining below FMSY between 2004 to 2014. F has been above FMSY since 2015. Recruitment in 2015 is estimated to be the highest of the whole time-series.
Figure 1 Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Summary of the stock assessment. (SSB in 2018 is predicted).
Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes. Recruitment in thousands.
ICES assesses that fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and below Fpa and Flim; spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points
Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. Weights are in tonnes. Recruitment is in thousands.
| Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| F ages 3–6 (2018) | 0.35 | Based on a TAC constraint* |
| SSB (2018) | 808715.00 | |
| Rage1 (2018) | 17383000.00 | RCT3 estimate. |
| Rage1 (2019–2020) | 14843754.00 | Geometric mean 1988–2016. |
| Total catch (2018) | 262935.00 | TAC constraint* |
Table 3 Herring in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Annual catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.
| Basis | Total.catch..2018. | Ftotal..2018. | SSB..2018. | SSB..2019. | X..SSB.change.. | X..Advicechange… | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICES advice basis | |||||||
| 2 | EU MAP^: FMSY | 267745 | 0.220 | 1283487 | 1113149 | -13% | 24% |
| Other options | |||||||
| 3 | EU MAP: Flower | 200236 | 0.160 | 1309914 | 1194895 | -9% | -7% |
| 4 | EU MAP: Fupper | 331510 | 0.280 | 1257629 | 1037734 | -17% | 53% |
| 6 | ICES MSY approach: FMSY | 267745 | 0.220 | 1283487 | 1113149 | -13% | 24% |
| 7 | F = 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 1383265 | 1448388 | 5% | -100% |
| 8 | Fpa | 457890 | 0.410 | 1203489 | 893608 | -26% | 112% |
| 9 | Flim | 553453 | 0.520 | 1159630 | 789549 | -32% | 156% |
| 10 | SSB (2019) = Blim | 924535 | 1.100 | 955800 | 429915 | -55% | 328% |
| 11 | SSB (2019) = Bpa | 739660 | 0.770 | 1065542 | 599790 | -44% | 242% |
| 12 | SSB (2019) = MSY Btrigger | 739660 | 0.770 | 1065195 | 599790 | -44% | 242% |
| 13 | F = F2017 | 239413 | 0.195 | 1294692 | 1147220 | -11% | 11% |
| 14 | F = MAP FMSY lower | 200236 | 0.160 | 1309914 | 1194895 | -9% | -7% |
| 15 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.01 | 211757 | 0.170 | 1305469 | 1180807 | -10% | -2% |
| 16 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.02 | 223170 | 0.180 | 1301041 | 1166908 | -10% | 3% |
| 17 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.03 | 234473 | 0.190 | 1296629 | 1153196 | -11% | 8% |
| 18 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.04 | 245670 | 0.200 | 1292232 | 1139667 | -12% | 14% |
| 19 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.05 | 256760 | 0.210 | 1287852 | 1126319 | -13% | 19% |
| 20 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.06 | 267745 | 0.220 | 1283487 | 1113149 | -13% | 24% |
| 21 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.07 | 278626 | 0.230 | 1279138 | 1100155 | -14% | 29% |
| 22 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.08 | 289405 | 0.240 | 1274805 | 1087334 | -15% | 34% |
| 23 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.09 | 300081 | 0.250 | 1270488 | 1074684 | -15% | 39% |
| 24 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.10 | 310657 | 0.260 | 1266186 | 1062202 | -16% | 44% |
| 25 | F = MAP FMSY lower + 0.11 | 321133 | 0.270 | 1261900 | 1049886 | -17% | 49% |
| 26 | F = MAP FMSY upper | 331510 | 0.280 | 1257629 | 1037734 | -17% | 53% |
| Basis | F | Catch_2018 | SSB_2019 | SSB_2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | NA | NA | -2020 | |
| ICES advice basis | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| EU MAP^^: FMSY | 0.22 | 155333 | 735005 | 716594 |
| EU MAP^^: Flower | 0.16 | 115591 | 750157 | 766194 |
| EU MAP^^: Fupper | 0.28 | 192787 | 720202 | 670935 |
| Other scenarios | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| ICES MSY approach: FMSY | 0.22 | 155333 | 735005 | 716594 |
| 20% decrease in TAC ^^^ | 0.31 | 210703 | 712928 | 649472 |
| F = 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 791368 | 916969 |
| F = Fpa | 0.41 | 263813 | 690577 | 587317 |
| F = Flim | 0.52 | 318710 | 666102 | 525436 |
| SSB (2020) = Blim | 0.73 | 408365 | 622595 | 429752 |
| SSB (2020) = Bpa | 0.39 | 254003 | 694799 | 598630 |
| SSB (2020) = MSY Btrigger | 0.39 | 254003 | 694799 | 598630 |
| F = F2018 | 0.35 | 232886 | 703741 | 623242 |
| Advice basis | MSY approach. |
| Management plan | The current recovery plan (EU, 2004) is based on precautionary reference points that are no longer appropriate. ICES has not evaluated this plan. |
The uncertainty in the assessment is relatively high, with large changes in biomass estimates in consecutive years. The model confidence intervals are an underestimate of uncertainty because they are narrower than interannual changes in estimates in consecutive years. There is a lack of tuning data for the earlier years of the assessment, for some areas outside of subareas 7 and 8, and for the larger individuals in the population. Given the expansion of the stock into northern areas (ICES, 2017b), there is a potential that not all catches are reported for this stock. Biological sampling from these areas is also limited. The data compilation of this stock is very complicated because it is exploited by several countries and the assessment model configuration is complex. In turn, the assessment model is very sensitive to the data and the settings used. Hence, it is extremely important for the quality of the assessment to have the complete data for all the countries on time and in the right format.
| Framework | Reference.point | Value | Technical.basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 45000 | Bpa | ICES (2016a) |
| NA | FMSY | 0.28 | Stochastic simulations on a segmented regression stock–recruitment relationship. | ICES (2016a) |
| Precautionary approach | Blim | 32000 | A low biomass which was followed by a quick recovery. | ICES (2016b) |
| NA | Bpa | 45000 | 1.4 × Blim | ICES (2016b) |
| NA | Flim | 0.87 | Fishing mortality resulting in a 5% probability of SSB falling below Blim. | ICES(2016b) |
| NA | Fpa | 0.62 | Flim/1.4 | ICES(2016b) |
| Management plan | SSBMGT | No defined |
| ICES.stock.data.category | X1..ICES..2016c.. |
|---|---|
| Assessment type | Length-based model (SS3; ICES, 2017a) that uses landings and some discards in the model. Additional discards are then included to calculate a catch forecast. |
| Input data | Commercial landings; four survey indices (EVHOE-WIBTS-Q4, SpPGFS-WIBTS-Q3, IGFS-WIBTS-Q4, and RESSGASC); maturity data: constant maturity (Martin, 1991); natural mortality: constant value (0.4). |
| Discards and bycatch | Data series from most fleets are available; 75% of the observed discards are included in the assessment (ICES, 2017a). The discards not used in the assessment are used to top-up the catch advice. |
| Indicators | None. |
| Other information | Last benchmarked in 2014 WKSOUTH (ICES, 2014). |
| Working group | Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Waters Ecoregion (WGBIE) |
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